America’s Little-Known Power Play Against China in Africa

Aug 31, 2020Washington doesn’t need to compete with Beijing dollar-for-dollar or troop-for-troop in order to reassert itself in the Horn of Africa. The simple act of standing up for such basic tenets of U.S. foreign policy as the promotion of human rights and democracy can reverse the current authoritarian backsliding that is destabilizing the region’s largest, and arguably most important country, Ethiopia.

China’s growing military and economic influence in the Horn of Africa, combined with the nagging threat of radical terrorism, presents a dangerous cocktail for the United States. In recent years, Beijing has wielded its infamous debt diplomacy to tighten its grip on the region. In addition, Chinese soldiers deployed to Beijing’s sole overseas military base continue to harass American troops, who have acted as a stabilizing force in the region for years. All too frequently, terrorist groups in Somalia also threaten a radical reemergence. 

A shrewd actor, China correctly identified the Horn of Africa as a region of growing global importance and invested accordingly. Beijing expanded its footprint in Africa to increase control over logistical chokepoints such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the flow of resources, including oil, gas, and water. The ability to influence the movement of those commodities, or commerce in general, can easily prompt conflicts or inflame existing ones. At the very least, it permits China to become a kingmaker in the region.  

Even viewed in isolation, the human rights abuses currently occurring in Ethiopia should be enough to propel Washington to confront Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. But ending the oppression of Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group – which happens to be overwhelmingly pro-American – in a country that could act as a bulwark against China’s global expansion, is undeniably in America’s interest. As the situation in Ethiopia stands now, there are three paths forward. One is simply the status quo, which sees hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid go to a regime that oppresses its own people. The second would see Abiy cozy up to China — which he’s already begun to do — and hasten Beijing’s expansion in the geostrategic region. The third, and most promising scenario, would involve Washington putting pressure on the Abiy regime to adhere to Ethiopia’s constitution and uphold basic human rights standards. Standards that are worsening by the day, especially for the Oromo people.

The ongoing repression of the Oromo community has intensified following the still-unsolved murder of famous Oromo singer Hacaaluu Hundessa, in June. The protests which broke out in the days following the assassination have been used by Abiy as a pretext to shut off internet access in the country, and to jail his political opponents. On top of this, Abiy has indefinitely postponed the planned 2020 elections, inducing a constitutional crisis if his regime continues to rule beyond October. 

To say that Abiy is plunging Ethiopia into chaos to entrench his rule would be an understatement. That this would benefit China at the expense of the United States is just as apparent. Fortunately, the United States possesses the necessary tools to assist Ethiopia to reverse this course.

First of all, Ethiopia benefits from almost $1 billion per year in U.S. aid. Moreover, the U.S. Congress has given the executive branch the power to sanction human-rights abusers such as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, through the 2016 Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. Put simply, Abiy cannot afford to ignore U.S. demands.

So, what should those demands be? An independent investigation into Hacaaluu’s murder, the release of Abiy’s political prisoners, the immediate cessation of persecution of the Oromo people, and the promise that, at the very minimum, Abiy will allow the formation of unity government if elections are not held by October. Each of these demands, if met, would go a long way towards shifting Ethiopia from chaos to calm. This would only benefit the U.S., as stability is the most fundamental prerequisite for any bilateral alliance to function.  

Not since the end of the Cold War has strengthening U.S. alliances been of more importance to Washington and its partners. Yet, the United States cannot advance its regional interests in the Horn of Africa if Ethiopia is in a constant state of turmoil. Indeed, the ability for Washington to advance its interests alone is looking increasingly difficult. In the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic, the Pentagon has acknowledged that future U.S. defense budgets will need to be trimmed to offset pandemic-induced spending. As the Pentagon’s budget is cut back, the United States will increasingly need to rely on its allies to advance U.S. interests. 

With the United States competing with China for influence in the region, East Africans of all ethnic groups need to ask if they would prefer to partner with a country such as the United States — which actively denounces human-rights abusers, or to join sides with a government that arrests its own ethnic minorities and places them on trains leading to their enslavement, such as in China. 

As ever, the Horn of Africa remains immensely important to the United States — all the more so due to increasing interest from its adversaries.  For Washington, the Oromo people are a clear strategic partner, as they long for those very rights that Americans consider inalienable. Empowering the Oromo people by advocating for their fundamental human rights is a priceless step that would only strengthen Washington’s position in a region it is currently at risk of losing.

By Seenaa Jimjimo, Executive Director of the Oromo Legacy Leadership and Advocacy Association  

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Oromo Legacy Leadership And Advocacy Association (OLLAA) has stood alongside with voiceless and faceless victims killed, falsely arrested, and forced into exile to become refugees at homes and abroad by the thousands. We believe the Oromo people, like others, deserve to be heard and to be understood for all the sacrifices they have paid and are still paying. Right now, we are truly disturbed by the daily news of human rights violations coming from Oromia! 

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