Since the civil war broke out in Tigray in November 2020, the world’s attention has turned to the humanitarian crisis in northern Ethiopia, caused, in large part, by the de facto blockade on the delivery of humanitarian aid. In recent weeks, the TPLF and the Ethiopian government have adopted a humanitarian truce designed to allow the flow of humanitarian aid into the region. While this is certainly welcome news for civilians throughout northern Ethiopia, it does not alleviate the suffering of Ethiopian citizens throughout the rest of the country, particularly in the south, which has been experiencing increasing food insecurity due to a drought, which some have called the “worst drought in forty years”, alongside underreported conflicts. Indeed, some have argued that the international attention given to the Tigray conflict has led to shortages in necessary humanitarian aid to other parts of the country. Given the recent announcement by the Ethiopian federal and Oromia regional government of a new military operation in Oromia, it appears likely that the humanitarian situation will continue to worsen throughout Ethiopia. More must be done to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches all who need it.
The Horn of Africa has experienced three severe droughts in the past 10 years, and it has been reported that famine was only averted during these droughts because of the timely provision of humanitarian assistance to affected communities. Unfortunately, the increasing frequency of these droughts have had a severe impact on affected communities, who have had little time to “bounce back” after each drought, contributing to increased displacement throughout the region. Now, southern Ethiopia is expected to experience yet another severe drought, following three consecutive failed rainy seasons. In early April, UN OCHA reported that 8 million people are currently affected by the drought across the Oromia, Somali, and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) regions. Of those, there are approximately 225,000 malnourished children and 100,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women in need of urgent nutrition support in the drought-affected areas of Oromia and Somali. Some have opined that this drought may become, “one of the worst climate-induced emergencies seen in recent history in the Horn of Africa.”
Most of the citizens of southern Ethiopia are members of pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities, and therefore, are reliant on livestock as both a source of income and food. Recent reports indicate that communities inside Oromia have already lost more than 1.3 million livestock due to the lack of water and feed, and that 14 million animals throughout the region have been affected by the drought. Those livestock that do survive often have “poor to emaciated livestock body conditions,” leading to lower incomes for pastoralists who sell their livestock or their products. Food prices have increased dramatically in affected areas, “leaving families unable to afford even the basics.” Sources of clean water are also disappearing due to the drought. In some instances, there have been reports of dead cattle contaminating local water sources and leading to outbreaks of diarrhea in the Guji, West Guji, and Borana zones of Oromia. Finally, desert locusts have been present in the Bale area since December 2019, and it was recently reported that they had invaded over 400 hectares of land in the Borana zone, which can decimate crops.
Humanitarian assessments and assistance are needed to address impacts of drought, including both the direct provision of food and water to affected communities and as well as the provision of funds that enable governments to launch preventative programs, such as animal vaccination campaigns, fodder distribution programs, and to increase access to drinking water. Unfortunately, it has been reported that there has been a shortfall of aid to assist affected communities, which some have claimed is due to the lack of international attention to the issue or the focus of donors on the humanitarian crisis in northern Ethiopia. OLLAA’s Executive Director, Seenaa Jimjimo, also notes that the Ethiopian government has played a role in this shortfall, due to its, “intentional failure to request aid or notify the international community about the increasingly dire humanitarian situation in southern Ethiopia.” In March, UN OCHA reported that there was a funding gap of $54 million to provide humanitarian assistance to drought-affected communities in Somali, and a $177 million gap for Oromia. The effects of this shortfall can already be seen inside Oromia, where the head of the Oromia health bureau has reported that there is currently a shortage of water purifying chemicals that they provide to local communities. The World Food Program recently issued a call for increased aid to address the crisis in southern Ethiopia, noting that “immediate and scaled-up assistance is critical to avoid a major humanitarian crisis in the drought-affected areas of Ethiopia and help communities become more resilient to extreme climate shocks.”
It should be noted that, in recent months, some governments have increased the provision of humanitarian assistance designed to address the needs of drought-affected communities throughout the Horn of Africa. This includes USAID, who announced in early April that they would provide $114 million in additional humanitarian assistance in order to respond to the drought in Ethiopia, Kenia, and Somalia. On April 27, 2022, the US government also announced that they would provide another $200 million in additional humanitarian assistance to the Horn of Africa, to respond to, “the devastating drought and to address the needs of refugees, internally displaced persons, and people affected by conflict in the region.”
Unfortunately, it appears that the humanitarian situation in southern Ethiopia will only continue to deteriorate over the coming months. In January, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network reported that the affected regions experienced “extremely poor rainfall” during the period from October – December 2022, and predicted that here were likely to be high levels of food security throughout the Horn of Africa, particularly concentrated in northern and southern Ethiopia, in coming months:
In April, the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group reported that, throughout the month of March, there has been lower than average rainfall and that current forecasts predicted that such trends would likely continue through June. Other sources report that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to further exacerbate the effects of the drought on Ethiopian civilians, as both countries supply wheat to Ethiopia, and the conflict will lead to major supply chain disruptions.
From the above, it is clear that the humanitarian situation in southern Ethiopia is dire, and that local communities will likely face increasing food insecurity, lack of access to safe drinking water, and mass displacement. Unfortunately, there is one new factor that may serve to further increase food insecurity and famine conditions in Oromia that has not been adequately accounted for in current estimates. On April 9, 2022, the Ethiopian federal and Oromia regional security forces announced that they had launched a new military operation aimed at eliminating the OLA from Oromia. Early reports indicate that clashes between the OLA and these forces began in the Moyale woreda, located inside the Borana zone of southern Oromia, one of the regions that has been most affected by the drought. It is generally accepted that conflict can worsen the effects of drought on a population, through a variety of means, including by limiting access to communities who are in need of assistance. Such effects can already be seen in Oromia, where in March, it was reported that deliveries of water to affected communities in the Guji zone had already been halted due to “security issues.” Conflict can also lead to the destruction of civilian’s property, livestock, and crops and lead to internal displacement. Ethiopian security forces have routinely destroyed the property, crops, and livestocks of civilians throughout the region. Such trends seem likely to continue under this new military operation.
More must be done to address the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in southern Ethiopia, and particularly in Oromia, which contains more than half of the Ethiopian population and produces 57% of the entire country’s wheat supply. The Ethiopian government must do all it can to ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches all those affected by the drought in a timely manner, including by seeking peaceful means to address conflicts with the OLA, much like it is doing with the TPLF in northern Ethiopia. Donors and the international community must also come together to ensure that humanitarian aid is provided to affected communities in the south, and not focus solely on the needs of those in northern Ethiopia. Only then will over 65 million Ethiopians be able to weather the coming food scarcity brought about by the drought and other factors.