The situation currently facing millions of people in Ethiopia has been described as one of the greatest humanitarian crisis of our time. However, this harsh reality is not restricted to – nor did it begin with – the war in Tigray. Instead, it can be found immediately below the silence of the international community in regions such as Oromia and other southern states, where starvation and mass displacement are rife and long-standing. The terrible tragedy facing Tigray is compounded by the media’s depiction of it as an acute, exceptional crisis – rather than the consequence of a much deeper and systemic issue.
With Ethiopia teetering towards the verge of collapse, it’s crucial that we understand how hunger and displacement have been weaponized by consecutive central governments to maintain the status quo and concentrate power into their own hands. Unless strong steps are taken by the international community to ensure these tactics are no longer acceptable, it seems inevitable that history will continue to repeat itself – even if the war in the north stops. But in order to do so, we must step back from the conflict in Tigray and understand the broader context of what is happening in Ethiopia.
A History of Hunger
Famine in Ethiopia has a long and dark history. Perhaps most infamous is the Great Ethiopian Famine, which spanned from 1888-1892 and is estimated to have killed up to a third of the population, and that of one century later in the 1980s (during the ruthless military Derg reign), which killed up to 1 million people and sent shockwaves through the international community. Although true that as a vast, drought-prone country, Ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters, many experts have asserted that the root-causes of these famines were not so much environmental as deeply political. Emperor Menelik II came to power in the midst of the famine in 1889; giving birth to modern Ethiopia on the backdrop of incredible human suffering, while experts have found that it was the then-government’s military strategy that played the largest role in creating the 1980s famine.
Even prior to the outbreak of war in Tigray, many people were facing acute hunger and at risk of starvation across Ethiopia. In a report released by the UNOCHA in February 2021, 23.5 million people were identified as being in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. At least 6.7 million of those individuals were located in the Oromia region alone – the highest number of any region in Ethiopia (followed by 4.5 million in the Tigray region). The report also found that 40% of all severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases in 2020 were located in Oromia, with rural areas in Oromia and Somali regions recording the highest rates of malnutrition in the country.
Environmental factors do play a strong role here. Rain shortfall in the south and south-eastern parts of the country (which includes Oromia), as well as the worst desert locust outbreak in 25 years, has had a devastating impact on farming. This is especially worrying as much of Ethiopia’s crop production is centered in these parts; Oromia typically produces around 57% of national production of wheat and its Arsi-Bale zones are considered the country’s “wheat-belt”. As 85% of Ethiopia’s population are subsistence farmers, the impact of this is immediate and widespread, especially in the drought-prone south. And yet, political motives play perhaps even a larger part in this increasingly desperate situation.
The Weaponization of Humanitarian Aid
Oromia is also by far Ethiopia’s largest and most populous region and is home to Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo. Yet, at least as far back as 2006, there have been allegations of government forces diverting food aid meant for southern Oromia and Somali regions in order to feed its own army or garner political support. The targeting of these regions has come as central administrations have attempted to stamp out resistance movements, with poverty and food aid becoming an effective political tool to do so. This is reflected in the huge amounts of people that have been displaced from these regions over the past few decades: in 2013, “the vast majority” of Ethiopians migrating along the Eastern Route (the most important migratory route out of Ethiopia) were from Oromia, while in 2018, Ethiopia recorded the highest number of newly displaced persons due to conflict in the world, with Oromia being its most affected region.
The motivations for this are easy to identify: the Oromo youth protest movements (also known as Qeerroo) were instrumental in the 2018 regime change that led to the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and instilled high hopes for an end to Ethiopia’s authoritarian legacy through democratic reform. In the volatile lead-up to this regime change, those protesting oppression under the previous EPRDF administration were exposed to brutal targeting by government forces. Following the rapid breakdown of those initial hopes for the Abiy administration, the current brutal clamp down on any perceived Oromo resistance is unsurprising. This targeted arrest and hunting down of Oromo youths over the past three years has had a huge impact on farming.
With the war in Tigray, this pre-existing crisis has only escalated. Eyewitness accounts reported in the Addis Standard last month, as well as reports received by OLLAA, allege that government officials are taking cattle and food from residents in Southern Oromia to feed national defense forces, leaving already hard-hit families to face severe food-shortages. On top of this, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public call for all eligible civilians across the country to join the war in Tigray has left many areas without adequate manpower for farming. In Oromia the situation is especially tense, as those who refuse to join the army risk being accused of supporting rebel forces and subjected to brutal government targeting. The impact of this is severe; according to BBC Afaan Ormo, over 400,000 Oromos in West Arsi have been exposed to extreme hunger.
In Tigray, a senior UN official recently described the de facto blockade on humanitarian assistance as an effort to “starve the population either into subjugation or out of existence”. It’s clear that this follows a well-established practice of utilizing food aid for political purposes; a tactic that appears to be deeply embedded into the psyche of the political elite.
It is this political layer to the suffering of civilians that takes it beyond a disaster to something even more grim. With such severe food and economic insecurity, coupled with volatile conditions and increased inter-ethnic tensions, internal displacement is reaching dangerously high levels. More than 4.17 million are currently displaced countrywide, with just over half of these located in the northern conflict-affected regions. Internally displaced people (IDPs) are the hardest hit by the humanitarian disaster, and more than half of all IDP hosting woredas (administrative zones) are facing “extreme” humanitarian conditions. Of these “extreme” woredas, two thirds are located in the Oromia and Somali regions, emphasizing the urgent need for humanitarian aid to reach these areas.
The Role of the International Community
Breaking out of this cycle of weaponizing the humanitarian needs of its people as a political tool is imperative if Ethiopia is to rebuild any semblance of stability and prosperity. Putting concerted pressure on the Ethiopian Government to ensure that effective protections are in place to protect civilians – and that those who are in genuine need of humanitarian assistance are able to receive it without hindrance – must be one of the strongest priorities of the international community. Coupled with effective penalties for the failure to do so.
Turning a blind eye, or acting as though such practices are limited to the Tigray conflict, is not only irresponsible, but dangerous. Just as the overthrow of the Derg regime did not lead to the end of such tactics, it would be naïve to assume the resolution of the Tigray War alone will portend the end of the humanitarian disaster confronting Ethiopia: the suffering facing millions of people in the southern regions of Ethiopia is both intimately tied to, and typically predates, the conflict in the north. The symptoms and causes of this suffering have a deep and dark history that must be confronted for any meaningful change to come about. In particular, the West must be attentive to the ways that humanitarian aid can be used to prop up repressive and authoritarian regimes, and be clear about what it aims to achieve. It cannot be assumed that the distribution of aid is an apolitical affair, a fact that humanitarian organizations need to better, and more transparently, engage with.
The response of the international community – be it in the provision of humanitarian aid, the implementation of sanctions, or in working towards diplomatic measures – must look beyond just the conflict in the north and understand the story painted by the hunger and suffering of the south. By drawing such distinct geographic lines in how it responds to this crisis, the international community risks burying in deeper the divisive and polarizing tactics used so successfully by consecutive governments.
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In 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed spent millions of dollars building a statue of Haile Selaisse, Ethiopia’s emperor until he was deposed in the 1974 marxist revolution that led to the Derg military regime. From 1972-1975, Ethiopia was struck by devastating famines that killed an estimated 200,000 people. Human Rights Watch has accused Haile Selaisse of acting with “official indifference” to the famines ravaging that country and going to great lengths to conceal the famine from the outside world. He was also known for his violent crackdown on opposition, factors which precipitated the 1975 revolution.
If that is the legacy that Abiy Ahmed wishes to uphold, it should act as a dire warning to the international community; showing that they must pay close attention to what is happening in all corners of Ethiopia.